“Built on the Brick and Mortar of Honest Shops — Advancing the Future of Transmission Professionals Worldwide.”
THE ROAD AHEAD ISN’T SLOWING DOWN
As we move deeper into the next decade, one truth stands out: the automatic transmission industry isn’t shrinking— it’s evolving. The vehicles are changing, the technology is advancing, and the skills to stay competitive are shifting rapidly. Yet beneath all that change, the economics remain strong.
People are keeping their vehicles longer, miles driven continue to rise, and complexity is creating opportunity for every transmission professional ready to adapt.
“Complexity is no longer a threat —it’s a barrier to entry. The professionals who stay ahead will capture a larger share of the work.”
THE MARKET REALITY
The U.S. vehicle fleet has never been older. The average vehicle age reached 12.8 years in 2025, a new record. That means more cars out of warranty and more repair opportunities for independent shops.
The automotive aftermarket will top $435 billion in 2025, heading toward the mid-$600 billion range by 2028. Transmission and drivetrain services remain among the most technically demanding—and profitable—sectors of that market.
“The automatic transmission industry is not in decline—it’s transforming.”
HYBRIDS: THE NEW NORMAL
Electric vehicles make headlines, but the real growth story is hybrids. Over 20% of new vehicles sold in 2025 are HEVs or PHEVs. These drivetrains still depend on complex multi-speed automatics —now paired with high-voltage systems and advanced torque controls.
That means transmission expertise is more valuable than ever. Every hybrid system introduces new calibration, cooling, and safety demands that general repair shops struggle to handle. For ATRA members, this is opportunity. The discipline we already bring to transmission service —cleanliness, accuracy, and process— translates directly into the hybrid and EV era.
POLICY TAILWINDS & DATA ACCESS
Independent shops are gaining ground on access. Both Massachusetts and Maine have passed Right-to-Repair laws protecting access to repair data. Federal agencies have stepped aside, and the courts have upheld consumer and independent rights.
This means ATRA shops can now service the newest models with OEM-level information—a major win for diagnostics, programming, and recalibration. ATRA will continue to lead on compliance and education as this evolves nationwide.
THE REAL CONSTRAINT: PEOPLE
The biggest challenge ahead isn’t technology—it’s talent. The latest studies show nearly one million new automotive technicians will be needed in the next five years. Transmission experts are among the hardest to find and train.
For shop owners, the takeaway is simple: build your pipeline. Recruit apprentices, train aggressively, and pay for certifications tied to skill milestones. The next generation must see a future in this trade—and ATRA’s Transmission University and Technician Training Advisory Council are here to make sure they do.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The automatic transmission business remains a core pillar of the aftermarket economy. Demand holds steady, hybridization extends the life of our trade, and regulatory progress is finally on our side.
The road ahead is filled with opportunity and will reward those who prepare. As always, ATRA will lead the front—equipping every member to train, adapt, and thrive in this new era of driveline technology.
Let’s keep this industry strong—together.
ACTION CHECKLIST
✓ Invest in hybrid and HV safety training (Levels 2–3)
✓ Refresh diagnostic tools every 24 months
✓ Build an authorization form aligned with R2R laws
✓ Create an apprentice-to-tech ladder with clear certification pay steps
✓ Price for diagnostic and calibration time—not just part swaps
✓ Participate in ATRA training events and online modules regularly
